I think in this instance it is due to the presence of the footnotes. Although there isn't a complete footnote in the visible section of the paragraph on the second page, it looks like there is one on the line that was cut off on the screen capture.

If that footnote anchor was to appear on the preceding page, the footnote area would be taller and therefore the paragraph would 'probably' have to move to the next page with a break approximately in that location. Since Word probably allocates space for the footnotes based on the entire paragraph, it doesn't surprise me if the page wrap occurs where it does.

Do you get a better visual result if you changed footnote 48 to sit in a different paragraph?

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Andrew Lockton
Chrysalis Design, Melbourne Australia